Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc
Maybe it struck me because I just spent several hours reading a logic text. Maybe it is just the fact that I tend to love locating logical fallacies — especially post hoc fallacies. At any rate, the American Family Association gave me another reason to shake my head. According to an e-mail from them that was forwarded to me:
The boycott of Ford Motor Company continues to be effective. Sales in August dropped 11.6%. This follows drops of 5% in March,
7% in April, 2% in May, 6.8% in June and 4.1% in July.
Let's consider this in the form of a logical argument. The AFA has told people to boycott Ford because of its support of homosexuality and Ford's sales are dropping, therefore the boycott is effective. This just screams of the type of propaganda that the AFA normally uses. The letter continues by noting how “stubborn” Ford is for continuing to support “homosexual groups:”
“Rather than save money by cutting financial support to homosexual groups, Ford plans to cut production by 21%, trim the number of
dealers, reportedly is seeking a merger or alliance with another auto
maker, studying taking the company private, and considering selling
their Jaguar, Volvo and Land Rover units.”
Now, if Ford had been doing great when the boycott began, I'd concede maybe the boycott is working. I might even be happy the boycott is working — I am, after all, on the same side as the AFA in rejecting “homosexual rights” such as homosexual marriage. But, the point must be made that all of the American car companies are facing major struggles at the moment, and only Ford is being boycotted. Moreover, Ford's woes go back several years before the AFA decided to boycott the company. All of the strategies the AFA mentions Ford considering are sensible given Ford's situation. Its buying spree of the mid-to-late 90s was ill-advised, lower purchasing necessitates lower production and less dealers, etc. GM is working through a similar set of considerations, and Chrysler already followed through with the idea of merging with another car maker (I guess the AFA missed the “Ask Dr. Z” commercials that remind everyone that Chrysler is a division of DaimlerChrysler).
Now, the AFA may be illogical and prone to hyperbole, but they aren't stupid. They admit this, but only farther down in the e-mail, after some (many?) may have gone off to celebrate the power of their boycotting the Blue Oval. That admission reads:
“While Ford, General Motors and Chrysler had similar financial problems when the AFA boycott began, most analysts see General Motors and Chrysler conditions improving. While not responsible for all of Ford's financial problems, the boycott is not doubt having a major effect. Ford blames it on the cost of gasoline. But General Motors and Chrysler face the same problem of $3 a gallon gas, yet their situation is improving.”
This too draws on logical fallacies. While constant talk of GM teetering on bankruptcy protection does not strike me as much of an improvement, there have been signs maybe — maybe — GM and the Chrysler Group are fighting back (though Chrysler lost market share in the most recent quarter, as I recall, whereas a few quarters ago, it was gaining market share). But, let's say both GM and Chrysler are doing better. The AFA is assuming a domestic car market where all else is equal (_ceteris paribus_). Could GM and Chrysler's “improving fortunes” maybe, possibly, sorta kinda have something to do with the little bitty fact that those two companies have been busy with major product line changes? Look at the Chrysler Group! Dodge has an almost totally redesigned lineup, Jeep is over doubling its variety of models, and the namesake marquee is midway through a similar makeover. On the other hand, Ford's makeover of products has been going on for a little longer, and their styling, features and marketing just seem far less impressive. Just why would I buy a generic looking Ford Five Hundred over a Honda Accord? Does anyone really think the 2006 Ford Freestar looks that much different from a 1999 Ford Windstar?
Why does this bother me so much? Because I think the AFA's actions generally do more to make Christianity look bad than good. “Christians really must hate homosexuals if they are willing to go so far as to decide what $20,000+ vehicle they will buy just because Ford gives to some homosexual charities,” is the type of thing I see people reading into actions like this. Precisely what does that really accomplish? Does it preach the love of Christ to anyone? Does anyone receive the Gospel because I didn't buy a Ford? Does anyone become “straight” because I didn't buy a Ford? Does it even save a life? When the AFA not only does these actions, but then justifies them with questionable analysis of statistics, I just find myself irritated.
Let's find something better to do then make the Church look like its main purpose is to condemn the world, eh? Let's “believe in the future salvation of all people” and then see what useful thing we can do toward this end.
My Fall Lineup
Well, since the rest of the Cranium Leakers are posting their TV schedules for the new fall season, I feel obliged to do the same. Here's my schedule. I know it may come across as a bit confusing at first with all of the options, but just try to muddle through it once or twice and then maybe it'll make more sense.
Sunday
None.
Monday
None.
Tuesday
None.
Wednesday
None.
Thursday
None.
Friday
None.
Saturday
None.
Phew. So you made it through that, huh? Yes, I know its a tough schedule, but somebody's got to do it!
Seriously, the schedule isn't completely true — I do watch some TV. I might watch a movie (often courtesy of Charter's Video On Demand service) or an old sitcom rerun. I just don't find any draw to watch major network TV on a regular basis. The last first run TV series I watched was, I suppose, NBC's Revelations that ran for six weeks in April and May of 2005. I was also into Debbie Travis's Facelift on HGTV for a bit, although my schedule usually meant I missed it and I got out of the habit of watching it.
This is true for several reasons. First, I tend to prefer more of what I'd call “classic broadcasting humor” in sitcoms; the comedy that made shows like I Love Lucy or the Dick Van Dyke Show simply doesn't seem to exist anymore. I'd say that breed of sitcom probably died with the end of the Cosby Show (at least as far as I've been able to tell). Second, for the most part, I prefer comedy over drama in a TV show. In my opinion, drama usually is more appealing in movie form. I was (am) a Trekkie, but nothing after Deep Space Nine was compelling enough to get me to watch on a regular basis.
On top of all of this, there are usually other things I'd rather do, especially as opposed to watching shows live (I watch basically everything in recorded form).
If Time Is Money...
then Google's cache just saved me mucho cash. I met a client tonight to demonstrate how to use SAFARI to edit his new site. The site uses Greek characters, and unfortunately, it seems that Greek doesn't transmit through forms very well in Internet Explorer (just as it does not work well in Apple Safari). By the time I noticed this, we had tinkered with one of the largest pages and all of the Greek had turned to gibberish.
I figured that was no problem, I'd just pull out the weekly backup. The weekly backup includes a MySQL dump of each client's MySQL data. Unfortunately, this backup too showed many of the exotic characters as gibberish — maybe my text editor doesn't support the characters, I'm not sure. At any rate, the backup wasn't going to do the trick.
Now what? Then it dawns on me. The site had recently been picked up by Google. If I just Google the URL, I can grab Google's cached copy of the page and restore it. So I did just that, and after about an hour of fruitless struggle, I was able to solve the problem with a quick cut-and-paste action. Thanks, Google!
Late Night Haiku XVI
XXXXIV. Tattered, it flutters,
“Is this all there was for me?”
Quoth the butterfly.
XXXXV. Late summer evening,
Not as musical as before,
Bugs sing their last songs.
XXXXVI. Was it yesterday,
That summer's joy passed by me,
While I looked elsewhere?
Holiday Monday Madness
1. Which holidays (if any) do you consider more as a day off from work, than anything else?
The day after Thanksgiving, I suppose, if you count that as a part of the holiday (or if “Black Friday” is given its own holiday status). Labor Day or Memorial Day would fit too. I usually don't get Labor Day off from classes — I did, for once, today, but I did other work, so…
2. Which 3 holidays are most celebrated in your family?
Christmas, Independence Day and Easter, most likely. Sometimes Thanksgiving turns out to be a bigger “family celebration” kind of holiday, however.
3. Do you have an organized filing system at home?
Somewhat. My books are classified topically and I may move to Library of Congress classification someday, just for fun. Papers are filed in different parts of my file cabinet. Non-image documents on my computer are typically organized by date, with some types put into sub-folders. Photos are organized by iPhoto.
4. Do you clip coupons for groceries? If so, do you remember to use them? If not, why?
No — I usually just don't get to them. Aldi doesn't accept coupons either, so sometimes they just aren't relevant.
5. How many magazines do you subscribe to?
Two. eWeek and InfoWorld. I'd like to subscribe to Investor's Business Daily, however it is a bit too pricey and it is more of a newspaper anyway.
6. Do you play any computer games on a regular basis? If so, which is your favorite, and why?
No, but if I had time, I'd love to play some SimCity again someday.
7. Have you watched any movies worth recommending, lately?
What's Up Doc with Barbra Streisand and Ryan O'Neal was really funny the other night (my uncle lent his DVD to me). The movie I've seen in the last 45 days that I'd probably recommend most highly would be Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, however.
Evolution and Faith?
I received an interesting article on intelligent design (or rather an argument against it and for evolution from a religious perspective) in my mailbox. This is rather unusual, so I thought I'd share it:
Advocates of American-style “intelligent design” (ID) have had a tough year. Their anti-evolution arguments have been soundly rejected by the scientific community, they lost spectacularly in a highly-publicised federal trial on the issue of ID in schools, and most recently the voters in Kansas rejected ID school board candidates in a statewide election. So they may surely be forgiven for hoping that Pope Benedict's discussions on evolution this month with his former students could bring some rare good news.
You can read the rest here. What strikes me on this, as it does elsewhere, is confusion on the term Intelligent Design. If God is the ultimate causation of evolution, what is that other than Intelligent Design? Perhaps I'm just being a stickler, but I think there are three major positions — Naturalistic Darwinian Evolution, Intelligent Design Evolution and Creationism — and blurring the latter two together just muddies the waters needlessly.
Regardless, the article is worth a read. Thoughts?
Quandary
I was talking to a friend this week about American Literature. I am of the mindset that is rather dubious about the whole venture known as “American Literature.” This state of mind is not so much because I think there is a complete lack of good American works, but because I think the percentage of good to bad is quite a bit higher than in British Literature of the same period. The amount that actually innovates is even lower. As T. S. Eliot argues, true literature is not something entirely new or something that merely copies works of the past, but something that takes the traditions through the new poet's interpretive lens to create a blend of the recognizable and the innovative.
But, I digress. The quandary, my friend pointed out is quite simple: If one questions the existence of American Literature, that is a bit of a problem the questioner as someone who is both American and somewhat of a writer. I'm not so bold as to think I have (or will) produce literature, but if I question the status of American literature, where does that leave those of us dabbling in the minor leagues of American writing?
1,000 Posts (Belated)
Well, the thousand post milestone was passed several weeks ago here on asisaid, and while I planned to say something about it, when it occurred, for a long time prior to the event, I failed to say anything when it finally did happen!
Oh, well.
As a bit of festivity for the event, here's a question for y'all: what's the most interesting thing you've forgotten that you should have remembered?
TQ: (Programming) Languages
This week's TQ from Mark is on programming languages.
1. What was the first language that you learned/used?
If it counts, MS-DOS batch scripting. If not, then Visual Basic.
2. What is your favorite language and why?
Perl. Partly because I've just become comfortable with it, partially because it seems more efficient for most tasks I do than PHP and provides easier to read code than other alternatives such as Python.
3. What is you least favorite and why?
Of those I know anything about, Visual Basic, but the scope of my knowledge is rather limited.
4. What language would you like to learn next?
Latin, French or Spanish. Oh, sorry, programming languages. Er, right.
I really don't have any big desire to learn another programming language, although back when I was more into that kind of stuff, it would have been C++.
5. What language do you have no desire to ever learn?
Fortran.
6. What language do you think is the best to start learning programming with?
Probably C/C++ just because of its flexibility.
7. What method you prefer, functional or OO?
For the most part, I've only used functional programming. I'm quite happy with that.
