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Election Night Part II

By Timothy R Butler | Posted at 9:52 PM

The President is presently leading Kerry 170 to 112. The critical battleground states of Ohio and Florida are presently leaning Bush by a margin of six percent or less (Ohio with 20% of precincts reporting, Florida with 67%).

Blunt is also ahead again — by one point — after being behind for the last hour or so.

Dubya! Dubya! Dubya!

[Numbers via CNN.com or CNN TV.]

Election Night Part I

By Timothy R Butler | Posted at 8:41 PM

Right now, Bush is leading 103 to 77, according to CNN. Florida, with 23% of precincts reporting, is going 53-47 Bush. Ohio is also leaning Bush, but only a minute fraction of the precincts are reporting.

Go Bush!!!

Matt Blunt is leading McCaskill 55-44 for the Missouri gubernatorial race.

This Is It

By Timothy R Butler | Posted at 4:22 PM

This is it. The day America decides whether we should stay the course or veer off it. I'm nervous. Presently, exit polling — according to Drudge — is showing Kerry leading in Ohio and Florida by one point. Of course, we all know how accurate exit polling is. Let's hope it is very wrong.

In other news, I didn't do much with the “TNGALLOP” poll. Only two others participated beyond myself, so it seemed like it probably wasn't enough to warrant creating graphs and stuff. In a two way race, Bush has 100% of the vote according to the poll, with all the candidates available, Bush leads 66% to Peroutka's 33%. Kerry won't find much consolation in these numbers. :-)

An Election Eve Request for Serious Pre-Voting Consideration

By Timothy R Butler | Posted at 5:29 PM

Remember to vote tomorrow (unless you are one of those people who live in a state that allows early voting). Hey, and if you support the President, heed Mrs. Kerry's advice to “vote early and vote often.” ;-)

Just a quick thought to remember: Even if you are in a state where you vote will not (likely) influence the outcome of the election, it will still help. Let's get the President to not only win the electoral college but also a landslide popular vote! Even people in died in wool “Blue” states can help with that. Let's keep this country on track — and give President Bush a mandate this time around.

This election looks to be even closer than the last in many ways. Don't stay home and let Kerry win. If you live in states like Ohio and Florida and you support a third party candidate, consider waiting until next election to support that party and vote for President Bush. If you live in the swing states and don't really like either candidate but at least can sympathize with the President a bit more, vote! Your vote could be the deciding vote, so it is critical to support our President right now. No vote or a third party vote in swing states is merely a vote for Kerry — he does not share our values, let's not let him force those values on us.

This election will likely decided:
  • Whether the anti-life policies of liberal activist judges will continue to be “blessed” by the government. (Keep in mind several Supreme Court justices will likely retired this time around!)
  • Whether the draft will be reinstated. Kerry keeps bringing it up but never emphatically denies support for it like the President has done (for instance, at the debate Kerry never said “no” but instead accused the President of supporting the draft — something he completely denies!).Democrats are the ones who proposed H.R. 163 to reinstate the draft.
  • Whether the U.S. should remain sovereign or let European activist judges in the International Criminal Court intervene with us. (Kerry supports this.)
  • Whether the U.S. is able to protect its interests as it sees fit or if it must pass an “international test” and get the blessing of the U.N. Kerry, during the Clinton Administration, actually said at one point that some of the conflicts we were considering going into would be useful if under U.N. jurisdiction but dead-ends if we went in by ourselves.
  • Whether government ought to increase taxes on the rich merely because they are richer than the rest of us. As Michael Badnarik notes, a good way to see if you can support this view is to ask yourself whether you would go rob your rich neighbor because you want him to pay for your healthcare, retirement, education, etc. If you won't do it yourself, why do you want the government ofall the people (not just of the working/middle classes) to do it for you and represent your interests as the “most important”?
  • Whether a candidate can simply blow with the wind, supporting preemptive action when it was fashionable (pre-Howard Dean) and not when it wasn't (post-Howard Dean). Whether candidates can say they'd vote the same way while condemning what their vote authorized. Whether candidates can say they believe life begins as conception but that abortion must be permitted (e.g. saying the government shouldn't stop what you believe to be murder!).

This election will decide these things. Voting for Nader will not stop this decision. Staying home will not stop this decision. Only voting for President Bush will say that these things are wrong. The President is not perfect, but who really is? Until the day Jesus returns, we will always have to pick the lesser of “evils.” No candidate is perfect, but we must ask which one has the best ratio of the ability to win and support the issues you support.

TNGALLOP Poll

By Timothy R Butler | Posted at 5:14 PM

ASISAID/TNGALLOP Presidential Election Poll 2004

#1: If the election was held today, with Senators John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic nominees and President George W. Bush and Vice President Richard Cheney as the Republican nominees, would you vote for:
  • George W. Bush for President and Richard Cheney for Vice President.
  • John Kerry for President and John Edwards for Vice President.
  • Undecided (select this only if you are truly undecided, not because you support another candidate).
#2: If the election was held today, with President George W. Bush and Vice President Richard Cheney as the Republican nominees, Senators John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic nominees, Michael Badnarik and Richard Campagna as the Libertarian nominees, Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as the Reform Party/Independent nominees, Michael Peroutka and Dr. Chuck Baldwin as the Constitution Party nominees, David Cobb and Pat LaMarche as the Green Party nominees and Walt Brown and Mary A. Herbert as the Socialist Party USA nominees, would you vote for:
  • John Kerry for President and John Edwards for Vice President (D).
  • George W. Bush for President and Richard Cheney for Vice President ®.
  • Ralph Nader for President and Peter Camejo for Vice President (RE/I).
  • Michael Peroutka for President and Chuck Baldwin for Vice President ©.
  • David Cobb for President and Pat LaMarche for Vice President (G).
  • Michael Badnarik for President and Richard Campagna for Vice President (L)
  • Walt Brown for President and Mary A. Herbert for Vice President (S).
  • Undecided (select this only if you are truly undecided, not because you support another candidate).
  • Other (Write In Appropriate Name).
#3 Rate your view of each presidential ticket with 5 being “Very Favorable” and 1 being “Very Unfavorable.”
  • 1. George W. Bush for President and Richard Cheney for Vice President ®.
  • 2. John Kerry for President and John Edwards for Vice President (D).
  • 3. Michael Badnarik for President and Richard Campagna for Vice President (L)
  • 4. Ralph Nader for President and Peter Camejo for Vice President (RE/I).
  • 5. Michael Peroutka for President and Chuck Baldwin for Vice President ©.
  • 6. Walt Brown for President and Mary A. Herbert for Vice President (S).
  • 7. David Cobb for President and Pat LaMarche for Vice President (G). #4 Rate your view of the previous job performance of the following candidates with 5 being “Very Favorable” and 1 being “Very Unfavorable.”
    • 1. President George W. Bush (President of the United States of America).
    • 2. Senator John Kerry (Jr. Senator from MA).
    • 3. Ralph Nader (Consumer Advocate).
    #5 Rate your familiarity with the following candidates with 5 being “Very Familiar” and 1 being “Very Unfamiliar.”
    • 1. Senator John Kerry (D).
    • 2. President George W. Bush ®.
    • 3. Ralph Nader (I/RE).
    #6 Rate how the following issues factor in to your selection of a preferred presidential ticket, with 5 being “Very Important” and 1 being “Very Unimportant.” (Note: your answers should be only how importantly they factor into your choice for president and vice president, not how favorably or unfavorably you view them.)
    • 1. War in Iraq.
    • 2. Adding New Jobs to the Economy.
    • 3. Global War on Terror.
    • 4. NASA Mars Mission.
    • 5. Homeland Security.
    • 6. Regulation of the Environment.
    • 7. No Child Left Behind Act of 2001.
    • 8. The USA PATRIOT Act of 2001.
    • 9. Abortion.
    • 10. Same Sex Unions.
    • 11. School Prayer.
    • 12. Free Trade.

    #7 Please rate how sure you are that you will vote in this election with 5 being “Very Sure” and 1 being “Very Unsure.”

    #8 Are you registered to vote in your presently residing precinct? (Yes/No [If no, please skip questions #9 and #10])

    #9 Likely voters are voters who either (1) voted in the last presidential election or (2) will be eligible to vote for the first time this election based one of the following factors: first presidential election over the age of 18 or first presidential election as a U.S. citizen. Based on this standard, are you a likely voter? (Yes/No)

    #10 What method of voting will you be using?
    • 1. Nov. 2 Voting (Punch Card)
    • 2. Nov. 2 Voting (Other non-electronic method)
    • 3. Nov. 2 Voting (Electronic)
    • 4. Early Voting (Punch Card)
    • 5. Early Voting (Other non-electronic method)
    • 6. Early Voting (Electronic)
    • 7. Absentee Voting (Non-Electronic)
    • 8. Absentee Voting (Department of Defense Electronic)
    • 9. Absentee Voting (Other Electronic)

    Thank-you for participating in the first quadrennial asisaid/TNGALLOP poll, please place your responses in the format of the first response below.

    POLLSTER BIAS: Republican/Libertarian (Economic and Social Conservative).
    COPYRIGHT INFORMATION: © 2004 Timothy R. Butler, All Rights Reserved. Polling questions may not be redistributed. Final results will be released under a Creative Commons license.

  • Bin Laden's Choice?

    By Timothy R Butler | Posted at 1:39 AM

    It seems that bin Laden's TV message today is aimed at one goal: ousting President Bush. By extension, I think this means UBL's preferred candidate is John Kerry. I don't need to go over policy positions or anything like that — all of you are smart enough to know that stuff already. The point one should consider is what scares UBL about four more years of Bush (and conversely what does he feel he would gain with four years of Kerry)? Considering that this follows on the heels of another threat against voting for President Bush from al-Qaeda… let's just say we can be confident they don't want four more years.

    They do not want four more years because President Bush is firm and aggressive in the war on terror. President Bush has the will and resolve to seek out the terrorists and get them — the war on terror may not ever be “won,” but so long as the terrorists know that we will strike back, it limits the gains they can make. A President Kerry, by all indications, would leave rooting out terror to the UN, a body that is rarely able to accomplish anything terribly useful. I hope those still on the fence will think about this seriously. When the top enemy of the state comes out of hiding to talk about your leader's allegedly poor handling of that enemy's attack on your country — should you heed that enemy's advice?

    Slam-a-lama-ding-don't

    By Timothy R Butler | Posted at 12:46 AM

    The Last Sports Announcement of the Year? OK. So we lost. I'll concede the guys in Boston deserved a win; while the Cards have won numerous times in the last few decades, the Soxs have not won since right after World War I. At least it wasn't the Yankees that beat us, that would have hurt. Next year, however, we'll be back. And win. So be prepared Boston.


    Taking Up Arms Like the better part of 400 tons that are missing and have been missing since before the war. I am glad to see since the last time I talked about this that the President has hit back at Very Scary Kerry who has been trying to use this to his political advantage while his strategists admit they do not have the facts to do so in an informed manner. If we had found 380 tons of this stuff since arriving, would we not have hailed it as weapons of mass destruction? Trust me, we would have.

    Foreboding

    By Timothy R Butler | Posted at 12:47 AM
    Huh?
    Sing out the song of sorrow, song of grief,       but let the good prevail. — The WATCHMAN
    In one of the highest points in the history of tragedy, Aeschylus opens the first play of the Oresteia, Agamemnon. The scene is at the end of the Trojan war.
    I'm still looking for that signal flare,                                        the fiery blaze from Troy, announcing
          it's been taken. These are my instructions                                 
          from the queen. She has a fiery heart,
          the determined resolution of a man.
          When I set my damp, restless bed up here,
          I never dream, for I don't fall asleep.
          No. Fear comes instead and stands beside me,
          so I can't shut my eyes and get some rest.
    — The WATCHMAN

    A weary watchman talks about the endless nights of watching for the relay of fires across the hills to Argos, home of King Agamemnon, Atreus's son. The fires, which arrive, signal the fall of Troy and the impending arrival of Agamemnon home. This should be a joyous event. Only home seals the king, and the never heeded prophetess Cassandra, to a brutal death at the hands of Agamemnon's wife Clytemnestra and her lover Aegisthus.

    As for all the rest, I'm saying nothing.       A great ox stands on my tongue. But this house,
          if it could speak, might tell some stories.
          I speak to those who know about these things.
          For those who don't, there's nothing I remember.
    — The WATCHMAN

    The watchman knows far more than he feels safe to tell the doomed king, leaving fate to take its deadly course rages forward toward the destruction of the king, his revenge through son Orestes and the bloodthirsty persuit of Orestes by the Furies of matricide.

    One disgrace exchanged for yet another,       the struggle to decide is hard.
          The man who sins is sinned against,
          the killer pays the price.
          Yet while Zeus sits upon his throne                              
          this decree from god remains—
          the man who acts will suffer.
          Who can then cast from this house
          its self-perpetuating curse?
          This race is wedded to destruction.
    —The CHORUS of ARGOS

    The eclipse that causes the crimson moon is an artistic liberty I have taken.

    Quotes taken from the translation of Agamemnon by Ian Johnston of Malaspina University-College.

    Make a Difference

    By Timothy R Butler | Posted at 1:10 AM

    With just a week to go in the 2004 Election, here is one of your last chances to make a real difference. Let your blogging audience know (and encourage them to spread the word) that the missing munitions in Iraq were noted as missing by NBC News on the day that the coalition forces arrived at the site eighteen months ago. As such, there was nothing the Bush administration could have done to protect the site… it had already been emptied out.

    Moreover, Kerry should be required to answer why he is attacking the President on something that only happened, the way he talked about it, in the New York Times/CBS News universe. Finally, the world should hear about Drudge Report findings that indicate CBS News appears to have been planning to use 60 Minutes this Sunday to reveal this twisted piece of news in hopes of damaging the President's campaign. If anyone doubts CBS's bias, this should make it even clearer exactly where they stand.

    Slam-a-lama-ding-dong

    By Timothy R Butler | Posted at 12:43 AM

    Well, let's just say it isn't going so well, and leave it at that, eh? I'm hoping the Cards were just trying to be good hosts tonight by letting the Red Sox win, but I'm not so sure about that. St. Louis is the baseball town, so we must win. The Cardinals have never lost a World Series to the Red Sox, I'd hate to see it happen now.

    If you are wondering, yes, your assumption was true if you thought I was not a sports fan, but I am loyal to the home teams — and I've always been partial to the Cardinals. I like the see the Rams win just like the next guy, but baseball and the Cardinals are just special. It is, after all, the all-American sport.

    Anyone else following the series? It started somewhat humorously, at least, with a bunch of fans holding “Cardinals: Slam-a-lama-ding-dong” signs. If you didn't get it, you really need to see Joe Buck's new commercial for Anheuser-Busch (which, if you didn't know it, is a St. Louis company, hence Busch Stadium).

    I'll probably slaughter it, but here's the “plot” of the commercial: Joe Buck, Fox's MLB and NFL broadcaster and son of late great KMOX sports broadcaster Jack Buck, is sitting in the baseball broadcasting booth when his agent comes in. The agent tells him he needs a catch phrase to say, when someone makes a good play, like other broadcasters have. Buck asks why he would lower the quality of the broadcasts for his audience just to have a catch phrase. The agent responds “licensing opportunities.” Camera cuts away to someone hitting a home run, then cuts back to Joe Buck's head. He starts off sounding normally, but then (as the camera zooms out and shows him in a bright yellow t-shirt) says slam-a-lama (hits a gong) ding-dong. He reaches back to give the agent “five” while the camera shows everyone in the room is wearing yellow slam-a-lama-ding-dong t-shirts.

    That's rather humorous, I think, but the real humor is in the fact that people are actually now using the phrase. Intentionally or not, perhaps Joe Buck will end up with the slam-a-lama-ding-dong catch phrase in real life. :-)

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