Election Night Part VI
Drudge has declared Bush the winner, Fox has all but done so as well. Fox News and NBC News have both projected a Bush Ohio win — let's hope they are right. Presently, with 91% of precincts reporting, Bush has a 51-49 lead. Overall, it is Bush 249 vs. Kerry 211, by CNN's numbers.
Paul Begala noted that this election will break one long held rule: (1) America doesn't abandon a war time president [if Kerry wins] or (2) America does not reelect presidents with less than a 50% approval rating [if Bush wins]. If (2) is true, it seems to me that perhaps the answer is that the polls have been poor, just as the exit polls have been.
As a side note, Electoral Vote, one of the two major pre-election electoral vote projection sites, is being operated by Andrew Tanenbaum. AST, as he is often known, is best remembered for a major debate in 1992 with Linus Torvalds over microkernels (Minix) vs. monolithic kernels (Linux). AST wrote Minix and has, recently, defended the originality of the GNU/Linux codebase from SCO's attacks.
Election Night Part V
Well, Fox News appears to have already given Ohio to Bush, but I think that might be jumping ahead of things a bit still. Voting still has not ended in the Buckeye State and personally I think CNN's more conservative method of awarding states is a good thing (especially, given continuing voting in these states). CNN stayed away from broadcasting exit polling and projects until after the polling places in each state closed — a very nice move compared with previous elections. Kudos to the CNN team which has been doing very good tonight — Wolf Blitzer, Aaron Brown, Larry King, Jeff Greenfield, Carlos Tucker, John King, Candy Crowly, Tucker Carlson, Robert Novak, Paul Begala and James Carville all have done a professional, commendable job. Obviously Novak, Begala, Carlson, and Carville — the Crossfire hosts — are quite partisan, but the others stayed very neutral all night.
Presently, Bush has taken Alaska, leaving just Ohio to get Bush to 269 — making it virtually impossible for Kerry to win. Begala and Carville (a former Clinton Administration advisor) seem to be conceding the election to Bush, as did Greenfield before he was scolded by Wolf Blitzer for going out on a limb outside of Crossfire.
In other news, Blunt appears to be set to become the next Governor of Missouri, although it looks like Catherine Hanaway will not be the next Secretary of State.
Election Night Part IV: Who/What I Voted For
Republicans: 8, Democrats: 1, Non-Partisan: 5, Other: 0
President: George W. Bush ®
Governor: Matt Blunt ®
Lt. Governor: Peter Kinder ®
Secretary of State: Catherine Hanaway ®
State Treasurer: Sarah Steelman ®
Attorney General: Chris Byrd ®
State Senator: Chuck Gross ®
State Representative: Carl L. Bearden ®
Circuit judge Circuit 11 Division 1: Ted House (D) (House often runs as a “Conservative” and is — like many lower level Missouri democrats — a social conservative.)
Non-partisan Judges: I voted to retain the present judges (5 of them).
Constitutional Amendment 3: Yes (Require fuel tax dollars go to MODOT/transportation issues.)
Proposition No. 1 (St. Charles County): No. (Children's fund sales tax.)
Revenue Recovery Proposition (City of St. Peters): No. (“Use tax” on interstate purchases.)
Proposition S (Central County Fire and Rescue District): No. ($0.17 property tax increase — too much at once, in my opinion, despite my general support of taxes for the Fire dept.)
Election Night Part III
Right now Bush is leading 197-188 Kerry, according to CNN projections. Ohio is still in Bush's corner, although it could be a precarious since some city precincts are staying open late.
Matt Blunt is currently behind by 1 point. In Illinois, Keyes (not surprisingly) has all but lost to Obama.
Election Night Part II
The President is presently leading Kerry 170 to 112. The critical battleground states of Ohio and Florida are presently leaning Bush by a margin of six percent or less (Ohio with 20% of precincts reporting, Florida with 67%).
Blunt is also ahead again — by one point — after being behind for the last hour or so.
Dubya! Dubya! Dubya!
[Numbers via CNN.com or CNN TV.]
Election Night Part I
Right now, Bush is leading 103 to 77, according to CNN. Florida, with 23% of precincts reporting, is going 53-47 Bush. Ohio is also leaning Bush, but only a minute fraction of the precincts are reporting.
Go Bush!!!
Matt Blunt is leading McCaskill 55-44 for the Missouri gubernatorial race.
This Is It
This is it. The day America decides whether we should stay the course or veer off it. I'm nervous. Presently, exit polling — according to Drudge — is showing Kerry leading in Ohio and Florida by one point. Of course, we all know how accurate exit polling is. Let's hope it is very wrong.
In other news, I didn't do much with the “TNGALLOP” poll. Only two others participated beyond myself, so it seemed like it probably wasn't enough to warrant creating graphs and stuff. In a two way race, Bush has 100% of the vote according to the poll, with all the candidates available, Bush leads 66% to Peroutka's 33%. Kerry won't find much consolation in these numbers.
An Election Eve Request for Serious Pre-Voting Consideration
Remember to vote tomorrow (unless you are one of those people who live in a state that allows early voting). Hey, and if you support the President, heed Mrs. Kerry's advice to “vote early and vote often.”
Just a quick thought to remember: Even if you are in a state where you vote will not (likely) influence the outcome of the election, it will still help. Let's get the President to not only win the electoral college but also a landslide popular vote! Even people in died in wool “Blue” states can help with that. Let's keep this country on track — and give President Bush a mandate this time around.
This election looks to be even closer than the last in many ways. Don't stay home and let Kerry win. If you live in states like Ohio and Florida and you support a third party candidate, consider waiting until next election to support that party and vote for President Bush. If you live in the swing states and don't really like either candidate but at least can sympathize with the President a bit more, vote! Your vote could be the deciding vote, so it is critical to support our President right now. No vote or a third party vote in swing states is merely a vote for Kerry — he does not share our values, let's not let him force those values on us.
This election will likely decided:- Whether the anti-life policies of liberal activist judges will continue to be “blessed” by the government. (Keep in mind several Supreme Court justices will likely retired this time around!)
- Whether the draft will be reinstated. Kerry keeps bringing it up but never emphatically denies support for it like the President has done (for instance, at the debate Kerry never said “no” but instead accused the President of supporting the draft — something he completely denies!).Democrats are the ones who proposed H.R. 163 to reinstate the draft.
- Whether the U.S. should remain sovereign or let European activist judges in the International Criminal Court intervene with us. (Kerry supports this.)
- Whether the U.S. is able to protect its interests as it sees fit or if it must pass an “international test” and get the blessing of the U.N. Kerry, during the Clinton Administration, actually said at one point that some of the conflicts we were considering going into would be useful if under U.N. jurisdiction but dead-ends if we went in by ourselves.
- Whether government ought to increase taxes on the rich merely because they are richer than the rest of us. As Michael Badnarik notes, a good way to see if you can support this view is to ask yourself whether you would go rob your rich neighbor because you want him to pay for your healthcare, retirement, education, etc. If you won't do it yourself, why do you want the government ofall the people (not just of the working/middle classes) to do it for you and represent your interests as the “most important”?
- Whether a candidate can simply blow with the wind, supporting preemptive action when it was fashionable (pre-Howard Dean) and not when it wasn't (post-Howard Dean). Whether candidates can say they'd vote the same way while condemning what their vote authorized. Whether candidates can say they believe life begins as conception but that abortion must be permitted (e.g. saying the government shouldn't stop what you believe to be murder!).
This election will decide these things. Voting for Nader will not stop this decision. Staying home will not stop this decision. Only voting for President Bush will say that these things are wrong. The President is not perfect, but who really is? Until the day Jesus returns, we will always have to pick the lesser of “evils.” No candidate is perfect, but we must ask which one has the best ratio of the ability to win and support the issues you support.
TNGALLOP Poll
ASISAID/TNGALLOP Presidential Election Poll 2004
#1: If the election was held today, with Senators John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic nominees and President George W. Bush and Vice President Richard Cheney as the Republican nominees, would you vote for:- George W. Bush for President and Richard Cheney for Vice President.
- John Kerry for President and John Edwards for Vice President.
- Undecided (select this only if you are truly undecided, not because you support another candidate).
- John Kerry for President and John Edwards for Vice President (D).
- George W. Bush for President and Richard Cheney for Vice President ®.
- Ralph Nader for President and Peter Camejo for Vice President (RE/I).
- Michael Peroutka for President and Chuck Baldwin for Vice President ©.
- David Cobb for President and Pat LaMarche for Vice President (G).
- Michael Badnarik for President and Richard Campagna for Vice President (L)
- Walt Brown for President and Mary A. Herbert for Vice President (S).
- Undecided (select this only if you are truly undecided, not because you support another candidate).
- Other (Write In Appropriate Name).
- 1. President George W. Bush (President of the United States of America).
- 2. Senator John Kerry (Jr. Senator from MA).
- 3. Ralph Nader (Consumer Advocate).
- 1. Senator John Kerry (D).
- 2. President George W. Bush ®.
- 3. Ralph Nader (I/RE).
- 1. War in Iraq.
- 2. Adding New Jobs to the Economy.
- 3. Global War on Terror.
- 4. NASA Mars Mission.
- 5. Homeland Security.
- 6. Regulation of the Environment.
- 7. No Child Left Behind Act of 2001.
- 8. The USA PATRIOT Act of 2001.
- 9. Abortion.
- 10. Same Sex Unions.
- 11. School Prayer.
- 12. Free Trade.
#7 Please rate how sure you are that you will vote in this election with 5 being “Very Sure” and 1 being “Very Unsure.”
#8 Are you registered to vote in your presently residing precinct? (Yes/No [If no, please skip questions #9 and #10])
#9 Likely voters are voters who either (1) voted in the last presidential election or (2) will be eligible to vote for the first time this election based one of the following factors: first presidential election over the age of 18 or first presidential election as a U.S. citizen. Based on this standard, are you a likely voter? (Yes/No)
#10 What method of voting will you be using?- 1. Nov. 2 Voting (Punch Card)
- 2. Nov. 2 Voting (Other non-electronic method)
- 3. Nov. 2 Voting (Electronic)
- 4. Early Voting (Punch Card)
- 5. Early Voting (Other non-electronic method)
- 6. Early Voting (Electronic)
- 7. Absentee Voting (Non-Electronic)
- 8. Absentee Voting (Department of Defense Electronic)
- 9. Absentee Voting (Other Electronic)
Thank-you for participating in the first quadrennial asisaid/TNGALLOP poll, please place your responses in the format of the first response below.
POLLSTER BIAS: Republican/Libertarian (Economic and Social Conservative).
COPYRIGHT INFORMATION: © 2004 Timothy R. Butler, All Rights Reserved. Polling questions may not be redistributed. Final results will be released under a Creative Commons license.
Bin Laden's Choice?
It seems that bin Laden's TV message today is aimed at one goal: ousting President Bush. By extension, I think this means UBL's preferred candidate is John Kerry. I don't need to go over policy positions or anything like that — all of you are smart enough to know that stuff already. The point one should consider is what scares UBL about four more years of Bush (and conversely what does he feel he would gain with four years of Kerry)? Considering that this follows on the heels of another threat against voting for President Bush from al-Qaeda… let's just say we can be confident they don't want four more years.
They do not want four more years because President Bush is firm and aggressive in the war on terror. President Bush has the will and resolve to seek out the terrorists and get them — the war on terror may not ever be “won,” but so long as the terrorists know that we will strike back, it limits the gains they can make. A President Kerry, by all indications, would leave rooting out terror to the UN, a body that is rarely able to accomplish anything terribly useful. I hope those still on the fence will think about this seriously. When the top enemy of the state comes out of hiding to talk about your leader's allegedly poor handling of that enemy's attack on your country — should you heed that enemy's advice?
