Predictions for Tomorrow

Update: I have a longer story about AT&T and the iPhone HD up at OFB.

With Apple's big WWDC keynote tomorrow, I'll go ahead and throw out some predictions as usual. I think it is virtually assured we will hear of the next generation iPhone tomorrow, and I'm putting my money on “iPhone HD” for the name.

I am all but assured by those in the know that it will not be available for Verizon tomorrow, just AT&T. On the other hand, I believe that AT&T is moving up eligibility for its users — even for some or all who bought the iPhone 3GS last year — to upgrade to the new iPhone because a Verizon launch is coming relatively soon. I believe a Verizon launch early this autumn is likely and Ma Bell wants to get people tied into a long term commitment before rumors around Big Red's upcoming iPhone begin to appear too genuine.

What does extending customers out two years do for AT&T? It buys the teleco time to finish its LTE buildout. While LTE is the designated 4G upgrade from AT&T's present GSM/UTMS network, and not Verizon's CDMA2000 one, Verizon is still way ahead on launching LTE as it joins most of the rest of the world in following 3GPP.

While AT&T's 3G network has more life remaining in it, with its various HSPA upgrades still available, LTE will win if only by a marketing fiat. Don't misunderstand me — LTE is better than AT&T's HSPA network over the long term, but AT&T is right from a technical standpoint not to rush into LTE; not only are devices still not ready for it, but the capabilities for advances in its current network have not been exhausted yet. Put another way: the maximum abilities of HSPA exceed the minimum abilities of 4G technologies like LTE and WiMax. The current iPhone 3GS, with its HSDPA 7.2 support, can offer real world performance that is better than the reported speeds of Sprint's HTC Evo 4G, for example. But, consumer perception is that 4G is automatically better than 3G. Hence, AT&T needs to get as many enthusiasts locked in as possible while it awaits its own LTE network to light up about a year behind Verizon's.

I also think we'll see something else announced, especially since Jobs has promised not to disappoint people who have already seen his crown jewel thanks to the sleazy antics of Gizmodo. The next generation, cloud friendly Apple TV seems like a reasonable choice and could open the door to a prediction I made earlier this year. Such a relaunch might also make sense amidst a larger revision of MobileMe as a partially free service that is more tightly woven into Apple's iPhone OS devices much as Google's services are with Android phones. I think a reworking of MobileMe is almost mandatory if Apple is at all serious about cloud computing, given that for all of MobileMe's advantages, free services from Google, and competitively priced services from companies like Dropbox, best MobileMe in numerous areas.

Updated Mac Pros and Mac minis would also make sense, but I doubt they will get stage time. I think the main Mac mention of note, other than the requisite sales figures, will be some acknowledgement of Mac OS X 10.7, presented as something that is shaping up in exciting ways, but that will not be previewed until some future time. The key goal here will be to assure people that Apple has not forgotten about the Mac.